Winner: Tokyo
Rio: one vote separating Tokyo and Rio (could even see a tie vote)
Madrid: out in second round
Chicago: out in first round
My prediction: 3 rounds of voting IF Madrid picks up extra votes from a change of mind of those possibly planning to vote for Chicago. If that doesn't happen, Chicago and/or Madrid don't get enough votes for all four to force a second ballot of all bids.
Or you could see a 2008-vote type situation with Chicago and Madrid going out on the first ballot and a second vote to decide between Tokyo and Rio.
What would be a surprise: a decision on the first ballot which is not likely.
Prediction: the appearance of President Obama blows up in Chicago's face-and those IOC members who think the appearance of the President as meddling (there are some) throw their votes to one of the other three cities.
I stand on it.
Monday, September 28, 2009
Thursday, September 24, 2009
Copenhagen cool-and the eyes and ears
Sadly, I won't be in Copenhagen (due to some family issues.) Family first-above all else. You only have one set of relatives-there will be other IOC meetings. But that doesn't mean my presence won't be there. My "eyes and ears" will be there.
I think it is quite interesting that some other writers who have been so hot on the Chicago bid are now backing off. Sorry guys...I have called it from the beginning that Chicago will lose-and lose big, possibly in the first round of voting. And even if President Obama shows up in Copenhagen, it won't make one bit of difference. I recall what a senior IOC member said to me many years ago: "We aren't impressed by celebrity. What impresses us is a good bid plan and the resources to back it up. We don't want to have to possibly bail you out if you get into difficulties."
What concerns me now is that the murder rate (especially among minors) in Chicago is the highest it's ever been. Also, the city has had random days off for non-essential municipal staff in order to save money on a projected $500 million dollar deficit. Is this a city that should be bidding? No way.
OK to review-20 reasons, expounded on my 10 original reasons Chicago will come home empty:
1. City deficit-$500 million and no end in sight.
2. Snotty treatment by Chicago 2016 of press-and evasive answers when they do decide to talk. We aren't stupid.
3. Sky-high murder rate.
4. Embracement by some members of the IOC to No Games Chicago-some are listening to their concerns-and they are valid.
5. A mayor that has continued the city's business model of "politics as usual"-a legacy that has been around since the original Mayor Daley.
6. The city's legacy of human rights abuses-anyone remember 1968?
7. The belief in the non-existant "Oprah" factor-the IOC really doesn't give a damm who she is (and this issue has come up before.)
8. Lawsuit settlements in the millions to citizens victimised by corrupt cops.
9. The presence of Michelle Obama in Copenhagen. You will never find a bigger supporter of the President than me-but this is one time he and his wife need to butt out.
10. Possible tax considerations. Montreal was paying off their debt for close to 30 years and folks in Chicago don't want that to happen there.
11. Chicago 2016 refusing to acknowledge opposition to the bid by neighborhood activists and community groups.
12. Possible displacement of affordable housing for venue construction.
13. Lack of legacy plans for venues-many white elephants on the table.
14. Questionable amounts of salaries being paid to bid officials. It's offensive in this economy-and not the smartest use of budgeting.
15. The "we can't lose" mentality of the bid committee. Oh yes you can-and will.
16. Poor international relations people working for them. Not qualified-and you know who you are. I have your business card on my desk right now.
17. Your bid team's uppity attitude at Sport Accord. If you want a major international event such as the Olympics, you have to embrace all people and cultures.
18. Possible environmental issues for the Chicago waterfront-and no plans to preserve that area.
19. Poor and/or non-existant response to basic emails and inquries. You clearly have something to hide-and I told you as much in Denver.
20. Making stupid mistakes all around-but stupid is as stupid does. You only have yourselves to blame.
Besides, keep up what you are doing-Tokyo will love you for it.
I think it is quite interesting that some other writers who have been so hot on the Chicago bid are now backing off. Sorry guys...I have called it from the beginning that Chicago will lose-and lose big, possibly in the first round of voting. And even if President Obama shows up in Copenhagen, it won't make one bit of difference. I recall what a senior IOC member said to me many years ago: "We aren't impressed by celebrity. What impresses us is a good bid plan and the resources to back it up. We don't want to have to possibly bail you out if you get into difficulties."
What concerns me now is that the murder rate (especially among minors) in Chicago is the highest it's ever been. Also, the city has had random days off for non-essential municipal staff in order to save money on a projected $500 million dollar deficit. Is this a city that should be bidding? No way.
OK to review-20 reasons, expounded on my 10 original reasons Chicago will come home empty:
1. City deficit-$500 million and no end in sight.
2. Snotty treatment by Chicago 2016 of press-and evasive answers when they do decide to talk. We aren't stupid.
3. Sky-high murder rate.
4. Embracement by some members of the IOC to No Games Chicago-some are listening to their concerns-and they are valid.
5. A mayor that has continued the city's business model of "politics as usual"-a legacy that has been around since the original Mayor Daley.
6. The city's legacy of human rights abuses-anyone remember 1968?
7. The belief in the non-existant "Oprah" factor-the IOC really doesn't give a damm who she is (and this issue has come up before.)
8. Lawsuit settlements in the millions to citizens victimised by corrupt cops.
9. The presence of Michelle Obama in Copenhagen. You will never find a bigger supporter of the President than me-but this is one time he and his wife need to butt out.
10. Possible tax considerations. Montreal was paying off their debt for close to 30 years and folks in Chicago don't want that to happen there.
11. Chicago 2016 refusing to acknowledge opposition to the bid by neighborhood activists and community groups.
12. Possible displacement of affordable housing for venue construction.
13. Lack of legacy plans for venues-many white elephants on the table.
14. Questionable amounts of salaries being paid to bid officials. It's offensive in this economy-and not the smartest use of budgeting.
15. The "we can't lose" mentality of the bid committee. Oh yes you can-and will.
16. Poor international relations people working for them. Not qualified-and you know who you are. I have your business card on my desk right now.
17. Your bid team's uppity attitude at Sport Accord. If you want a major international event such as the Olympics, you have to embrace all people and cultures.
18. Possible environmental issues for the Chicago waterfront-and no plans to preserve that area.
19. Poor and/or non-existant response to basic emails and inquries. You clearly have something to hide-and I told you as much in Denver.
20. Making stupid mistakes all around-but stupid is as stupid does. You only have yourselves to blame.
Besides, keep up what you are doing-Tokyo will love you for it.
