Winner: Tokyo
Rio: one vote separating Tokyo and Rio (could even see a tie vote)
Madrid: out in second round
Chicago: out in first round
My prediction: 3 rounds of voting IF Madrid picks up extra votes from a change of mind of those possibly planning to vote for Chicago. If that doesn't happen, Chicago and/or Madrid don't get enough votes for all four to force a second ballot of all bids.
Or you could see a 2008-vote type situation with Chicago and Madrid going out on the first ballot and a second vote to decide between Tokyo and Rio.
What would be a surprise: a decision on the first ballot which is not likely.
Prediction: the appearance of President Obama blows up in Chicago's face-and those IOC members who think the appearance of the President as meddling (there are some) throw their votes to one of the other three cities.
I stand on it.
